Providing news, research, data and properties in Southwest Florida – Site offered by Sean Dreznin of Dreznin Pappas Commercial Real Estate LLC.

Oil plunges and stocks jump as Trump and Iranian foreign minister say Strait of Hormuz is open, though uncertainty remains

Citing Israel-Lebanon agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on social media that the strait is “completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.” President Trump confirmed the news shortly thereafter.

By Matt Phillips via Sherwood News – <— Click here to review entire article

(Giuseppe Cacace/Getty Images)

Stocks rose (SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY $708.27 (-0.26%)) and crude oil prices remained deeply in the red Friday as both the US and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open, though there was uncertainty about the extent of the reopening.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that while ships can now pass through the strait, transit needs to be coordinated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Separately, President Trump declared on social media that the US blockade of Iran’s ports would remain in full force until “until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.”

Meanwhile, a US Navy advisory suggested shippers consider avoiding the area, as the threat of mines “is not fully understood.” A maritime security company advised clients not to try to cross, telling them to wait for additional guidance, according to Dow Jones.

Speaking to Barrons, Matt Smith, director of commodities research at energy data firm Kpler, said it will take hours to know whether the reopening is in fact taking place.

The market’s gains began with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s post early Friday declaring the strait open for the duration of the ceasefire, as a result of the deal between Israel and Lebanon to halt hostilities.

Shortly after Araghchi’s statement, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!”

As of midday, the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY $708.27 (-0.26%)), Nasdaq 100 (ProShares UltraPro QQQTQQQ $58.01 (-1.00%)), and Russell 2000 (iShares Russell 2000 ETFIWM $277.45 (0.60%)) all remained in solidly positive territory.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, tumbled on the announcement. Shortly before noon, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures were down by more than 10%.

Fuel-sensitive sectors of the stock market, like airlines and cruise companies, are up big. United Airlines UAL $99.22 (-2.54%)Delta Air Lines DAL $71.28 (-0.61%), and Southwest Airlines LUV $41.88 (-1.92%) all jumped, as did cruise lines Carnival CCL $28.97 (-0.86%)Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH $20.19 (-3.81%), and Royal Caribbean RCL $279.71 (-2.02%).

Going the other way were chemical and energy shares, which had soared along with prices of goods whose supply was constrained by the closure of the choke point to the Persian Gulf.

Chemical stocks — Dow, Inc. DOW $36.85 (3.50%)CF Industries CF $116.29 (3.20%), and LyondellBasell LYB $68.52 (3.40%) among them — tumbled, as did natural gas drillers APA CorporationAPA $36.35 (1.69%)EOG Resources EOG $129.48 (0.82%)Devon Energy DVN $44.91 (1.54%), and Coterra Energy CTRA $31.41 (1.67%).  

While the announcement about the strait didn’t signal that hostilities with Iran have conclusively ended, a broad swath of investors and traders rushed to buy.

They included fundamentally minded investors who expected lower US gasoline prices in the future, as well as retail traders eager to ride the growing wave of good vibes that have washed over the market recently, carrying the S&P 500 to new record highs.

Goldman Sachs’ meme stock basket jumped more than 3% in early trading, with constituents like Hims & Hers HIMS $31.34 (8.74%)Strategy MSTR $169.22 (1.62%), and SoundHound AI SOUN $8.29 (2.54%) rallying.

A separate Goldman basket of companies tied to spending by middle-income consumers was up even more, with large gains for companies like Boot Barn BOOT $167.95 (2.98%)Yeti YETI $41.15 (-0.05%), and restaurant chain Brinker International EAT $157.69 (-0.28%) as the market seemed to price in a decline in gasoline prices, which act as a tax on consumers.

Leave a comment