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More concessions in store as supply continues to flood our markets…

U.S. private employers added 184,000 jobs in March, per ADP, showing steady demand for workers in leisure, hospitality, and construction. But beneath the headline, momentum is slowing: wage growth for job-stayers fell to 5.1%, its lowest pace in over three years. While the job market remains tight, this slowdown suggests that companies are dialing back their urgency to compete for talent, especially in lower-wage sectors.

Hiring may still be healthy, but the shift in wage dynamics is meaningful. As pay growth moderates, household purchasing power could start to erode—just as tariffs threaten to push prices higher. If this trend continues, it risks weakening one of the economy’s most resilient pillars: consumer spending. The labor market isn’t falling apart—but it’s no longer giving workers the upper hand, and that shift could ripple through retail, housing, and services in the months ahead.