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The August jobs report was just good enough to keep markets guessing what the Federal Reserve will do this fall but that could be exactly the problem. The Labor Department said Friday that the U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs last month, below expectations for 161,000 but up from the prior month. But beneath the surface there were more worrying signs: June’s jobs growth was revised down by 61,000 to 118,000, and July’s by 25,000 to 89,000 jobs, both revisions making it difficult to take August’s rebound at face value.

Using a three-month moving average to smooth out this and other monthly volatility, the underlying trend is clear: The economy added an average of 116,000 jobs in the three months through August and a clear downward trend. In fact, this average has been moving downward for five straight months. The odds of a 50 basis-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, as implied by futures markets, fell to 23% Friday from 40% the day before, helping explain Friday’s market reaction to the jobs data. With zero rate changes in October (there isn’t a Fed meeting in October), if the employment picture continues to steadily worsen between now and then, investors may posit that the Fed is behind the curve in responding to this weakness.