I’m a proud client of Titan and they handle a portion of my investments well. I also enjoy their content and below is a recent perspective on SpaceX and the IPO from last week.
Meme of what Elon may have said in a recent interview…
| “Titan’s Take |
| June 12, 2026 |
| Welcome to Titan’s Take, our POV on the latest. |
| The biggest IPOs in history are about to price. The rush to get in is loud. What tends to happen afterward gets a lot less attention. SpaceX begins trading today, June 12, the largest IPO in history. And it’s not just SpaceX: Anthropic filed to go public around June 1, OpenAI followed on June 8, and now SpaceX hits the market. One after another, the most valuable private companies on earth are racing to go public. Together, the three are worth around $3.6 trillion, more than every company that went public in the last several years combined. All of 2025 produced $44 billion in IPO proceeds. Goldman thinks 2026 will hit a record $160 billion, led by these three. And this time retail is invited. SpaceX may reserve up to 30% of its deal for individuals, triple the usual slice. But an open door isn’t a guarantee: the book is heavily oversubscribed, so your order may come back nearly empty. Here’s what the data says about chasing these The famous first-day “pop” isn’t yours. Across 9,253 IPOs from 1980 to 2024, that pop averages about 19%, but it goes to whoever bought at the offer price, mostly institutions. You may not get in at that price, and by the time you do, the pop has likely happened and your fill price is a moving target. After that, the record turns. The median IPO since 1975 was down about 26% three years later, even as a few giant winners dragged the average positive. Most lag the market; a handful of moonshots carry it. And the ones that stumble early rarely recover: of 654 IPOs that fell on their first day since 2001, about 68% were still in the red three years later.  SpaceX shows why price matters. It’s coming public at about 94 times trailing revenue, pricier than anything in the S&P 500, above even Palantir around 70 times sales. At that price you’re paying today for a trophy SpaceX hasn’t won yet, and the multiple assumes it keeps winning year after year. So even strong results can fall short of what the stock already expects. Our view The businesses are real. Anthropic projects revenue will roughly double to $10.9 billion in the June quarter and expects its first operating profit, around $559 million, though the company itself has cautioned that profitability may not last as data center spending ramps up. We’re not calling AI a mirage, and the best of these could reward patient owners for years. But past performance never promises the next stretch, and a great company can still be a bad price on debut day. The people who benefited most were early investors and employees handed equity years ago, who then waited. Buyers at the open are paying for that patience. The valuations are big, the volatility is real, and so is the opportunity. It’s just better captured on purpose, sized to your plan, rather than grabbed in the first hour of trading. Happy Friday, Titan Team |
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