The Commercial Real Estate Alpha Site

by Jay Parsons via LinkedIn <– Click here for complete article and similar ones.

This is one of my favorite charts from John Burns‘ team of top-notch demographers. It clearly shows how the “renting stage of life” is elongating — regardless of what happens with mortgage rates and home affordability. Some takeaways:

1) Look at the steady decline in the number of 30-year-olds who are married, who have a kid or who own a home. The pattern (from 1985 to 2025) crosses over multiple cycles — from good times and bad times economically. In moments like now, we (rightfully) put a heavy focus on housing affordability making it harder for renters to become homeowners. That’s real, but it’s not the only factor. These same trends persisted through the era of low rates and better affordability, too.

2) Getting married and having kids are typically triggers to purchase a house. The longer you wait to get married and have kids, the more likely you are to favor flexibility over the commitment of a mortgage. Numerous surveys show us that renters, as a group, value the flexibility of renting while in the renting stage of life … the ability to relocate without the hassle of selling a house.

3) As America ages, these trends will likely mute the impact on apartments in particular. (Aging demographics are more of a tailwind SFR.) We could see demand remain strong in many markets simply as a function of people choosing to rent longer than did prior generations. But their preferences may evolve with age — such as preferring larger units to accommodate more stuff and bigger budgets.

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