Have rent cuts bottomed out for the U.S. apartment market? Maybe. Check out this chart comparing year-over-year effective rent change in January 2026 compared to each MSA’s low point in 2025.
In 41 of the top 50 largest MSAs, rent change in January 2026 showed improvement over 2025’s low point. This reflects improved MOMENTUM. It doesn’t mean rent growth is now positive in all 41. In fact, for many of them, rents are still falling … but falling LESS than previously. (Note that effective rents include impact of concessions.)
Not surprisingly, San Francisco and New York showed the biggest gains in momentum.
Also not surprising to anyone paying attention (we’ve talked about this before), Atlanta showed real gains in momentum … though that’s an example of a market where rent change is still negative, albeit more slightly at -0.9%. Other Sun Belt / Mountain markets showing momentum of at least 100 bps: West Palm Beach, Virginia Beach (now a top-performing market, and one with little supply), Jacksonville, Denver, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix and Dallas.
Most other high-supplied markets show smaller gains in momentum. (And to be clear: Rents are still falling in most, but to lesser degree than at 2025’s low point.)
Where did rent change further DECELERATE in January compared to 2025’s lows? Not by more than 50 bps anywhere. But that list includes a rather random grouping of Memphis, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Seattle, Northern New Jersey, Houston, Baltimore, Greensboro and Cincinnati.
So did rent cuts bottom in 2025? It appears that way — particularly with record supply levels now in the rearview mirror. But we’ll see.
#apartments #multifamily #rents #Parsons #Dreznin #DPCRE
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