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Retail outlook for 2026 shows modest growth in store openings, with closures slowing and demand rising for prime retail space.

By Jordan B via CRE Daily.com <— Click here for complete article

• Retail openings in the US are expected to rise about 4% in 2026, with closings down by a similar margin.
• Discount and beauty retailers are expanding as luxury chains and department stores continue to shrink.
• Retailer bankruptcies and store closures are creating growth opportunities for surviving chains seeking new locations.
• Analysts see no major inflection point, just incremental change driven by economic factors and shifting consumer demand.

Retail Openings Trend Higher

According to CoStar, despite early-year headlines about Macy’s, Saks Global, and Francesca’s shuttering stores, US retail openings are set to tick upward in 2026. Industry analysts from Coresight Research and Telsey Advisory Group both forecast a modest increase in new store launches, with projections in the 1.4% to 4% range compared to last year. Store closings, while still significant, are expected to decelerate after a year that outperformed liquidation expectations.

Opportunities Amid Closings

The wave of bankruptcies and closures among department stores and specialty apparel brands has left valuable real estate available. Analysts highlight that off-price and beauty retailers, along with discount chains, are ready to seize these spaces as they accelerate expansion. Demand for prime locations remains high due to the limited new supply of retail real estate being built.

What’s Driving the Shift

Macroeconomic trends continue to support the retail sector’s steady rebound. Lower interest rates encourage spending and business investment. Consumer confidence is rising, especially among high-income shoppers. These factors help boost new store openings while slowing the pace of closures. Analysts also point to cyclical trends driving market adjustments. Store turnover remains active but is now less volatile than during and after the pandemic. Still, closures continue to make headlines, with several national chains planning large-scale shutdowns that reflect broader retail realignment.

Why It Matters

Retail’s 2026 outlook suggests gradual improvement, not a dramatic shift. Store closures still outpace openings but at a slower rate. This natural churn shows how retailers adapt to changing customer behavior and digital growth. Chains are shrinking or growing their footprints based on performance. Demand for retail space remains strong, especially in prime locations. Retailers ready to act fast can seize space left by closing stores.