The Commercial Real Estate Alpha Site

While economic uncertainty persists, commercial real estate’s strong fundamentals position the industry for success in the year ahead.

I tend to focus on Multifamily and Retail, so I’ve highlighted portions of this report specific to those core arenas. If you would like the entire report, Click here and visit JP Morgan.

Multifamily fundamentals remain healthy

Multifamily debt markets remain robust in 2026, with government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) receiving a 20.5% increase to their lending caps. The amount of debt capital available for multifamily assets is abundant and the ability to explore all options and coordinate capital for sponsors is essential.

The housing supply crisis persists. Over 22 million renter households experience housing-cost burdens, with 12 million classified as severely cost-burdened, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition’s report, Out of Reach 2025: The High Cost of Housing.

“There’s not enough affordable housing supply, and there is excessive demand for the supply that exists, particularly in major cities along coasts. That dynamic hasn’t changed for a long time,” Stuart said. 

The uncertain economic landscape could also impact multifamily. “If we start to see job losses, you may see some softness in rents,” Stuart said. “But we don’t expect changes to be dramatic, given the structural supply and demand.” 

In November, JPMorganChase announced more $40 million in philanthropic funding to help address the nation’s affordable housing supply shortage. The funding will support the expansion and preservation of housing in urban and rural areas. Since the beginning of 2025 through the first three quarters, the firm’s Commercial Real Estate and Tax-Oriented Investment businesses extended more than $5 billion in debt and equity for affordable housing, which is expected to create and preserve nearly 39,000 affordable housing units across the country.

As the country’s leading multifamily lender, our priority is to expand housing options for those in need by investing in new developments and the preservation of existing affordable and workforce housing.

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For local Gulf Coast of Florida Commercial Real Estate needs, desires, goals, etc, visit Dreznin Pappas Commercial Real Estate LLC to learn more.

Industrial and retail offer opportunities

Industrial leasing is softer than it was during the sector’s post-COVID peak. However, the sector remains strong across both urban infill locations and big-box warehouses in areas with more space, such as California’s Inland Empire and across Texas. Given the uncertainty around tariffs, nearshoring and onshoring of manufacturing remains popular, demand for manufacturing facilities is likely to remain high.

J.P. Morgan recognizes the importance of these and other technology and infrastructure advancements. We’re focused on delivering the full strength of the firm to help address challenges ahead. The launch of our Security and Resiliency Initiative, a $1.5 trillion effort, aims to boost critical industries, including supply chain and advanced manufacturing, defense and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and strategic technologies.

Industrial’s success is closely tied with that of retail’s. Backed by strong consumer spending, retail has solid momentum entering 2026. Grocery-anchored and neighborhood shopping centers continue to perform well, and retail is thriving in areas where office usage has increased.

“The retail sector is experiencing good tailwinds with limited new supply,” Davis said. “We’re seeing the strongest valuations in a decade across active shopping centers, excluding regional malls.”

The bottom line: The 2026 commercial real estate outlook is positive. Multifamily, industrial and retail remain resilient, and office usage and rents are up in several markets. Although economic uncertainty and other challenges remain, opportunities are on the rise.