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Markets are heading into a crucial week perched at record levels, but the calm belies the risks ahead. A trio of inflation releases (CPI, PPI, and a closely watched jobs report) will give investors fresh insight into whether price pressures are truly cooling. With the Fed’s next move hanging in the balance, even modest surprises could swing expectations for rate cuts or extended restraint. Bonds, equities, and currencies alike are set up for sharp reactions depending on which way the data breaks.

The market narrative rests on a soft-landing story, but that optimism will be stress-tested in real time. A hotter CPI could force investors to abandon hopes of imminent easing, while a cooler print may fuel another rally leg. With valuations stretched, volatility could spike as traders reposition around each release. This is a data-dependent moment where short-term swings may matter as much as long-term fundamentals, making agility the name of the game.