The Commercial Real Estate Alpha Site

The University of Michigan’s preliminary July reading showed consumer sentiment ticked up to 61.8, with one-year inflation expectations easing from 5.0% to 4.4%. While that’s a modest psychological boost, longer-run inflation expectations remain sticky around 3.6%, indicating that consumers still lack confidence in the Fed’s ability to fully tame prices.

This kind of split sentiment creates a delicate balance: spending may hold up for now, but future-facing behavior (like borrowing, big purchases, and investing) is still clouded by uncertainty. For retailers, that means cautious inventory builds. For investors, it suggests a soft but persistent floor under consumer-linked equities with pricing power.