The Commercial Real Estate Alpha Site

by Jack Morse / Wednesday, January 29, 2025

via Sherwood news

Rollin’ with the homies… Crypto prices largely mirrored stock movements this week as traders reacted to DeepSeek’s AI-market bombshell and expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady at its meeting today. The CoinDesk 20 — an index tracking notable cryptocurrencies like bitcoinBTC $101,979.09 (0.01%), ethereumETH $3,105.21 (-0.59%), and XRPXRP $3.07 (-0.87%) — slipped over the weekend into Monday morning before clawing back somewhat yesterday. That tracks with moves in the equity market; the S&P gained 1% yesterday, recovering most of its Monday losses.

Wax on… risk off. Crypto’s star,bitcoin, has largely moved alongside risk-on assets like tech stocks over the past year. It’s a trend that may be sticking: the correlation between bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit an all-time high on Saturday, after briefly diverging post-Trump election (when bitcoin outperformed equities). While bitcoin-specific events like last April’s halving have shaped investors’ expectations, economic events like the Fed’s rate decisions and labor reports have also played into the digital asset’s price. Bitcoin has swung after seemingly unrelated events like DeepSeek’s launch. And altcoins often ride bitcoin’s coattails.

Crypto’s still finding its place in the portfolio… Bitcoin’s $2T market cap, high liquidity, and established rep have boosted the narrative that it’s digital gold. But its recent moves in tandem with equities bolster the risk-on description. The perception is becoming increasingly blurred as institutional investors and corporations like BlackRockBLK $1,051.20 (2.10%) and MicroStrategyMSTR $337.39 (-3.47%) go big on crypto.