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A closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation. The consumer price index, which measures costs for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the U.S. economy, is expected to register an increase of 0.3%. The ‘core’ inflation gauge, which excludes the volatile price changes of food and energy, is expected to increase by the same amount.

The reports are important as the inflation prints for March and April will play an outsized role in determining whether the Fed proceeds to cut rates in June. Markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect rate policy. Moving towards the Fed’s 2% target doesn’t just mean hitting 2% for one month – it means hitting 2% or less for several months in a row and the Fed needs to be certain this is under control ahead of pivoting monetary policy.