The Commercial Real Estate Alpha Site

• IOU – The US debt deal will end the pandemic pause on student loan payments, after 3 years, restarting payments (and interest accrual) for millions of borrowers in August. The average paused balance = $37k
• Cross Check – Low-income workers have made historic earnings gains during the pandemic, narrowing the wage gap between lower and higher earners. A labor shortage sparked the trend, but it could slow soon.

• Bulls versus the Bears – Wall street is wrestling with an interesting divergence in market sentiment, as hedge funds and speculative investors make their most pessimistic wagers against the S&P 500 since 2007, while at the same time preparing for a rally of the Nasdaq-100. Tech companies have fueled the S&P 500’s 12% year-to-date growth. After a year long slump, resurrected by the ongoing AI momentum, it seems tech is back on top… at least for the time being — challenges like a resilient labor market and persistent inflation continue to pose obstacles. There is light at the end of the tunnel, but lots of obstacles before we reach that goal.
• Lots of earnings coming this week!
• Make it a great week!