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Global trade slowdown: The World Trade Organization forecasts only a 1% increase in exports and imports, down from previous projections of 3.4% for 2023. The abrupt downturn in trade forecasts suggests that high inflation could ease next year but elevates recession risk. The prediction follows the U.S. trade report in August, where exports of goods and services fell by 0.3%.

Titan’s Takeaway: There are micro and macro headwinds factoring into a global slowdown in global trade, from weakening household demand to geopolitical crises threatening increases in tariffs and a pullback in globalization. It’s a fine line to tow when working to tamp down global inflation amid the possibility that rising rates may lead to global economic contraction.

OPEC to cut oil production: OPEC announced that it would cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day in an effort to jump-start crude prices, which have fallen from over $120 a barrel in June to roughly $80 a barrel in September. The U.S. has been pushing OPEC and its allies to increase production, but the latest cut is the largest since 2020. 

Titan’s Takeaway: The production cuts will likely push crude prices higher as fears of a global recession and demand destruction seep into the organization’s oil policy. The decision is peculiar as global energy remains squeezed, and the new cut will likely put more pressure on supply and prices.